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The staff changes in the OSCE Minsk Group will not become a factor which could destabilise the negotiating process, British Political Scientist of Azerbaijani origin Teymur Huseynov said.
"Bryza's latest comments about the need to return five occupied towns around Nagorno-Karabakh as the necessary first step have once again indicated that the United States has in fact come closer to arguments voiced by Azerbaijani leadership," said Huseynov. Head of the Eurasia Division of the British Exclusive Analysis Ltd. private company of assessment and forecasts for political risks.
In this sense, Tina Kaidanow's possible appointment will not alter the strategic outlook of the White House to the ways of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, he said.
Armenia should return 7 districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, Georgia Online quoted OSCE Minsk Group U.S. Co-Chair Matthew Bryza as saying.
In 2009, the Russian and U.S. Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group will be changed, Russian Co-Chair Yuriy Merzlyakov said earlier.
Diplomat Tina Kaidanow will replace Matthew Bryza as the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, but not as the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair, the U.S. Embassy in Azerbaijan said earlier.
However, Huseynov believes this positive remark by Bryza is being neutralised by current pressures on Baku to take the obligation of non-use of force under any circumstances against the Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh.
He said this effort is rather futile, for the Kosovo and Georgia examples have already set dangerous precedents, that in today's greater Europe successful self-determination is achieved through the use of force rather than principles of international law or compromise.
"In the case of Nagorno-Karabakh the negotiators should focus on exploring ways of reconciling the principles of territorial integrity and self determination leading to peace, which would also open the doors for Armenia to participate in transnational energy projects in the region," Huseynov said.
Moreover, the so-called Madrid principles have served basis for negotiations. The political scientist believes Baku will be rather careful in discussing the details of such intricate issues as the transitional status of Nagorno-Karabakh, time frame and voters identification in a likely referendum, return of refugees and deployment of international peacekeeping forces to the occupied territories.
"All in all, I assess the possibility of arriving at a solution during President Aliyev's and Sargsyan's Kishinev meeting this autumn as very low due primarily to domestic constraints on both presidents that impede making any meaningful progress through negotiations within the format of the OSCE Minsk Group," Huseynov said.
It is planned that Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan will hold the next meeting on the Nagorno-Karabakh peaceful settlement in Chisinau on Oct. 9 as part of the summit of the CIS countries' heads.
/Trend News/
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