Articles for 06.11.2008 » Caspian Partnership for the Future

AZERBAIJAN FACING PRESSURE FROM THE GAS CARTEL

Ariel Cohen, political expert, Senior Research Fellow at The Heritage Foundation ( USA). Caspian gas producers will come under the increasing pressure from the troika of the founders of the natural gas cartel which has emerged stealthily and steadily over the last seven years. The governments in Baku, Ashgabat, Astana and Tashkent– the four smaller Eurasian gas exporters -- need to coordinate their policy to keep their sovereignty in the face of the growing clout by Moscow and Teheran. Western Europe and the United States need to support the Caspian gas countries’ quest for independence and self-determination in the energy sphere.

On October 21 in Tehran, the Gas Exporting Countries' Forum (GECF) agreed to form a cartel. Besides Russia, Iran and Qatar, its members include Algeria, Bolivia, Brunei, Venezuela, Egypt, Indonesia, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Trinidad and Tobago, and Equatorial Guinea, say that they intend to form a yet–unnamed group to "coordinate gas policy."

The Group of Three (the "troika") will meet quarterly to coordinate and exercise control over close to two–thirds of the world's gas reserves and a quarter of all gas production. To compare, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) controls more than three–quarters of the world's oil reserves but only 40 percent of global production.

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EUROPEAN ECONOMY TO EXPERIENCE SERIOUS SHOCKS: MOODY'S INVESTORS

In Q3 2008, the total solvency of the western European companies kept falling due to fast deterioration of the situation in the financial sector, Moody's Investors Service, an international rating agency, said in its European Credit Trends Q3 2008 – Special Comment.

Most of the largest economies in the region either have entered the recession or are moving towards this. In spite of fall of official interest rates and extensive governmental support to the financial sector, Moody’s expects the European economy to experience serious shocks in middle-range outlook.

In Q3 2008, Moody’s decreased the ratings of 52 liability issuers and increased the ratings of 15 issuers. Thus, the gap between the number of increases and decreases totalled -37, which was the worst result since the Q1 2003 (-48).

Moody’s economist Christine Lee said that given the preservation of high inflation rate in the European Zone, the European Central Bank had to leave without change the current rates in Q3 instead of decreasing them so that to maintain the growth. Combination of the factors exerted a ponderable influence on the fundamental credit indices of the western European issuers. As a result, the profitability of non-financial companies decreased, he said.

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US CAUGHT UP IN DEEP RECESSION

The drop in GDP of the United States in Q3 is an indication of a deep recession, Paul Ashworth, senior economist on US at Capital Economics, UK Consulting company said.

“US GDP contracted slightly in the third quarter, shrinking by 0.3% at an annualised pace, but there is much worse to come,” Ashworth said by e-mail.

Analysts of Capital Economics say US economy will endure deep and long lasting recession. Recovery does finally take place, but they expect it to be lacklustre at best.

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OPERATION OF BAKU-SUPSA OIL PIPELINE RE-ESTABLISHED

BP company put the western export route – Baku-Supsa pipeline – into operation, Tamam Bayatli, Head of the Public Relations Department of BP Azerbaijan, said on 5 November.

BP is the operator of Azerbaijan International Operating Company, which in its turn, operates Baku-Supsa pipeline.

The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) intends to dispatch 600,000 barrels of own oil consignment via this route (first time within two years) on 11-12 November.

Baku-Supsa oil pipeline will begin to function, when the guarantee on inspection of the Georgian section of the pipeline and its security is provided, Rovnag Abdullayev, the SOCAR President said earlier.

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